An argument for withdrawal (Part Two)

"He putteth forth his hand upon the rock; he overturneth the mountains by the roots. He cutteth out rivers among the rocks; and his eye seeth every precious thing. He bindeth the floods from overflowing; and the thing that is hid bringeth he forth to light.
But where shall wisdom be found? And where is the place of understanding?
Man knoweth not the price thereof; neither is it found in the land of the living."
- Job 28:9-13

Common arguments for perpetuating the war:

“Better the chaos and slaughter over there than here.”

I have yet to see a single credible intelligence or foreign policy analyst suggest that anything remotely like Iraq could happen here in the U.S. whether U.S. forces are still in Iraq or not. Every serious analyst I’ve looked at from DIA to DHS says that it is very likely that one day in the not too distant future terrorists will manage to pull off a devastating attack once more on American soil whether U.S. forces are in Iraq or not. And, by the way, no level of border security or invasive, warrantless surveillance by federal authorities will be able to make us “safe” either. The bottom line is that there is no possible way the chaos of Iraq can reach the U.S.. Why? Because of fundamental differences between the two nations.

The average Iraqi citizen is increasingly hostile to the American “occupation” and loyal to partisan militias, Americans by and large are not especially sympathetic to terrorists who are trying to kill them. Iraq is plagued by centuries of blood feuds between clans, ethnicities, and religions, America has the Red Sox and the Yankees. Iraq is surrounded by states far more likely to fuel the fires of conflict than Mexico or Canada (though one never knows about that Harper fella, he did refuse to meet with Bono at the G8 summit, and if that doesn’t qualify as "Axis of Evil" material, I don’t know what does). And if one takes a look at where the terrorists are from that have actually tried to conduct attacks on American soil, one would see that they are not from Iraq, they are from Great Britain, Canada, and American citizens. This argument is simply a wholehearted embrace of the politics of Fear.

“If we leave, Iraq will descend into chaos, and we can’t let that happen because…”

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Iraq is getting worse and worse and there seems to be nothing we can do about it. As it turns out (as almost every general who was asked predicted) the troop surge is a spectacular failure. Even the overly optimistic generals on the ground have admitted that the army has been able to secure only a third of the Baghdad neighborhoods they hoped to by this point in the surge. They cite Iraqi army incompetence and cowardice as a reason that U.S. troops have not been able to move on from these few Baghdad neighborhoods. Also it is increasingly noted that Iraq’s police force is essentially just a training ground for the thousands of armed partisans that fill the ranks of local militias (and is it any surprise when we consider that those policemen’s families have to live in these neighborhoods administered by armed militias). Ultimately, whether we are there or not, the situation is going to get far worse before it gets better.

As a side note, although absolute chaos in Iraq is a possibility if we leave, I think the chances of that happening are actually quite low. Probably the most significant reason for this is that the regional powers really don’t have a vested interest in a large, completely failed state in their neighborhood.

“If we leave Iraq, that will send a signal to our enemies that we are weak, and it will embolden them.”

I guess I’ll have to break the bad news once more: that horse left the barn a long, long time ago. I figure the “enemies” must be rogue nation states (i.e. Iran, N. Korea, Syria, etc.) and terrorist groups (Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc.). I think both groups are quite aware of the situation in Iraq, and I don’t think they could be any more emboldened than they are now.

The whole world knows that we have failed in Iraq: we have lost. Only the Bush PR machine and about 30% of the American population are desperately clinging to this absurd fantasy of the U.S. smoothly sailing on to victory in Iraq, having only to weather an occasional squall. The reality is that the whole world watched the American people punish Bush for the war in the congressional election of 2006. The whole world can see Bush’s job approval rating is worse than Nixon’s in the process of being impeached. The whole world saw an unprecedented number of generals and admirals (both active and retired) and the Army Times editor calling for the resignation of Rumsfeld. The whole world can see that the U.S. forces, despite a valiant effort to hold the country together, are being killed at an alarming rate, are losing more and more ground to partisan forces, and are having little to no success training up an effective Iraqi army and police force. The whole world can see how our military is broke: two year deployments with a one year turn around, the chief of staff saying that 1/3 of the army’s equipment has been consumed in Iraq and Afghanistan, recruiting grandparents (I kid you not, in my old Guard unit a grandmother and her grandson joined at the same time), felons, and those who declare they one day hope to get a GED: recruiters are scraping the bottom of the barrel. The whole world can see that the Interior Minister of Afghanistan just this week declared that coalition forces rule by day, but “the Taliban rules the night” in his country, and we are powerless to stop it because we are so deeply mired in Iraq. The whole world can see that Bush is about as popular home and abroad as the Bubonic Plague.

As for specifically terrorist groups, Osama bin Laden has rallied his troops for decades by saying “Remember Mogadishu! The West will run if we spill enough of their blood.” I hate to be the furtherer bearer of bad news, but that is enough for zealots to be as emboldened as they can be. That was 1993 and it still emboldens the terrorists, of course, they also are regularly emboldened by remembering the Crusdaes, and how the West was ultimately pushed out of the Arab world by enough blood spilled. When I was in Bosnia, I was an analyst specializing in extremist groups and I watched their propaganda and recruitment videos. Let me assure you that our pulling out of Iraq will be one more thing for them to get excited about, but it will have no discernable effect amongst the warped minds of fundamentalist, religious zealots.

I conclude my argument by summarizing that there are no good reasons to stay in Iraq, there are only scores of very good reasons to leave Iraq.